ABC's PFD Guess... $1378.51

by Steve Brawn

Well it's that time of the year again, when Alaskans get a boost to their bank accounts. The permanent Fund Dividend amount will be announced this afternoon, by Governor Sean Parnell.

Yesterday, I sat down and did some number crunching to estimate the amount of this year's check. Here is what I came up with.

First of all, $875,000,000 has been transferred into the fund from the PFD Corporation, to be distributed out among check recipients; that we know. Of that money, we estimate that about $4,000,000 will be taken out for state fees, unclaimed checks from previous years, and so on. That leaves the fund with about $871,000,000 left to send out to the lucky Alaskans who will get a PFD check this year.

Following so far? Good.

Next, we have to figure out exactly how many of us Alaskans will get that hopefully hefty chunk of change next month. We know that for the 2009 dividend, 657,666 people applied for a check. Of those, 598,378 have been approved, 3,600 have been denied because of being duplicates, and 20,380 have been denied based on other reasons. Based on these figures, there are about 35,408 applications that are still pending, as of yesterday that is. The Division of Revenue says that normally about 95% of applications get approved, so based on that, we can assume that of the pending applications, about 33,460 will get that stamp of approval.

So, back to the total number of those already known to be approved: 598,378. We can now add the number of projected approvals (those pending now) into the mix and we assume that about 631,838 Alaskans will see a big jump to their bank accounts some October.

So, how much will each person get?

We take the estimated $871,000,000 and divide it by the projected number of Alaskans that will get the check and we get, dun dun dun.. $1378.51. For the actual amount, be sure to tune in tonight at 5:00 as ABC Alaska News will have coverage of the much anticipated announcement. Now let's wait and see how close our guess really was.

The State will direct seposit the funds into accounts on October 8, and will start mailing checks on the 22nd.

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