Week 2 & 3 Accuweather 45 Day Forecast Challenge

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by Ryan Overton

 It has been a busy couple of weeks here at the office, so my apologizes for not updating this sooner!

 

Now we enter almost week 4 of the Accuweather.com 45 day forecast challenge to see how well they can predict 45 days out. Let me put it like this... NOT GOOD.  Recapping week one they were colder by about 4-10 degrees everyday and its only getting worse for weeks two and three! So here we go!

 

When I forecast so many variables go into how I predict and what I am looking for. Here in Anchorage we are blessed by the Chugach Mountains which keep us dry when the winds come out of the Southeast. At the same time are temps are influenced by our proximity to the water and the last detail is how much sunlight we get. As we head toward winter we don't get enough sunlight to really heat the ground as you would like in most places in the lower 48. With that said, this fall has been WAY above normal.

 

WEEK 2 Accuweather Forecast- So for week two starting October 18th, Accuweather started with SNOW, a high of 38 and low of 30. Similar for the 19th with a 34 and 26 and snow for the day. Then temps start to drop... 29 H - 19 L on the 21st. Then a 28 and 18 with more snow for the 22nd. A 28 and 19 for the 19th and a 29 and 20 to end week 2 on October 24th.

 

So now that we know what Accuweather predicted we can see exactly what happened... Almost the exact opposite. Starting again the 18th, Anchorage was in the low 50's! With overnight lows in the mid 40's nearly 15 degrees warmer than what Accuweather predicted. Then the 21st through the 24th to end week two the only day even close to what they predicted was the 24th where it was a high of 36 and low of 26. Accu had predicted 29 and 20... Still they have no clue what is happening.

 

WEEK 3 Accuweather Forecast- Starting October 25th I will rundown quickly what Accuweather predicted then compare to actually what happened and its NOT pretty. Accuweather's week of high temps starting the 25th of October went 29, 27 ,26, 31, 30, 27 and finally 24 ending on Halloween..... When in reality it was 48, 40, 45, 51, 50, 44 and today was 43. In some cases they were almost 25 degrees off. I wont even compare the lows because it wasn't even close...

 

Now how can we trust Accuweather when they couldn't predict a five days out let alone 45 days. To me its insane. I would put more trust in Brick from Anchorman than anything..

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