Where Do Forecasts Come From?


by Ryan Overton

I often get asked how do I predict what the temperature is going to be for the next day, or 7 days out... With Alaska that becomes even tougher. In the lower 48 it is fairly simple. If you live on the east coast you generally can look to the west and see exactly what is coming toward you... in a few days.


Here in Alaska however, it is more of a guessing game, a bit of instinct and looking at what has happened in the past. 


With this blog, I want to provide folks with the tools to predict for themselves. Since you asked how I get the numbers for each day, this website compiles every model run for Anchorage and gives you a graph lining them all up on top of one another. Its called the Meteogram Generator, a great tool!


The Alaska WRF or Alaska Weather Research Forecast Model is another great tool, giving us closer looks at Anchorage/Juneau and the Fairbanks area. Shows predicted precipitation, trends and wind speeds.


Finally if you ever wonder where I get certain statistics from like wind speeds/temps/rain totals the NWS Mesonet readings are a great place!


Hopefully this helps some aspiring meteorologists to forecast their own weather!

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