Your Alaska Link Weather Blog

Janessa Webb

I often get asked how do I predict what the temperature is going to be for the next day, or 7 days out... With Alaska that becomes even tougher. In the lower 48 it is fairly simple. If you live on the east coast you generally can look to the west and see exactly what is coming toward you... in a few days.

 

Here in Alaska however, it is more of a guessing game, a bit of instinct and looking at what has happened in the past. 

 

With this blog, I want to provide folks with the tools to predict for themselves. Since you asked how I get the numbers for each day, this website compiles every model run for Anchorage and gives you a graph lining them all up on top of one another. Its called the Meteogram Generator, a great tool!

 

The Alaska WRF or Alaska Weather Research Forecast Model is another great tool, giving us closer looks at Anchorage/Juneau and the Fairbanks area. Shows predicted precipitation, trends and wind speeds.

 

Finally if you ever wonder where I get certain statistics from like wind speeds/temps/rain totals the NWS Mesonet readings are a great place!

 

Hopefully this helps some aspiring meteorologists to forecast their own weather!

There were some interesting clouds in the sky this evening. With not a cloud in the sky anywhere else, where did these come from and why were they in a line? Like ducks in a row, these clouds lined up one by one almost as well as my kindergarten class...

 

So how do formations of clouds like this happen? For this we turn to a friend of mine and old coworker, Scott Sistek, a meteorologist at my old work KOMO in Seattle who had a similar situation a few weeks ago.

 

According to Scott, "it might have been a line of deformation -- sometimes this occurs when you have two nearby low pressure centers tugging on the same area."

 

Now for us here in Alaska we have one low pressure to the northeast of Anchorage and another to the Southwest of us.

 

 

And according to Scott, "This can create an area where when air gets essentially pulled in opposite directions, it creates lower pressure aloft that can create a little bit of lift and some clouds."

The title says it all. Yes, Nike is coming out with shoes for the meteorologist. Complete with laces and images of radar. The Doppler images are put on either side of the shoes. The shoes went on sale August 30th, and if you do plan to buy them. Make sure you know what you are talking about!

 

In the small town of Commerce City, Colorado northeast of Denver a very scary situation is underway. Evacuations in the town have been ongoing the last couple hours. Heavy rains the last two days have put pressure on nearby rivers and streams with rain falling at 1-2 inches per hour.

 

Because of this, a dam near Commerce City is about to break, releasing a wall of water about 15-20ft deep and 300 yards wide. It is expected to break in the next several hours a very life threatening situation. Here are pictures of some of the damage thus far.... There has also been 3 people confirmed dead and another missing.

 

 

 

 

This next photo is from someone who is from Alaska IN Colorado currently....

 The new climate outlooks are out! While they are of course not 100% accurate it seems to go with the pattern we are having. An above normal summer (warmer than average) and now turning to a cooler than normal fall and start of winter. Yes it looks as though the cold weather could come earlier this year based on the National Weather Service's outlook.

 

 

The image above is the three month temperature outlooks for the United States. You can see above average from Texas to California all the way up to Idaho. The east coast and the upper Midwest looks to be above average too. Now how it works here in Alaska it looks like there is a 33% chance that it is warmer than average from the Brooks Range, north. However, here in the Anchorage area we have about a 40% chance about being below average for our temperatures between October and December.

 

Now these are only predictions so of course we could get 30 days normal, 45 below normal and 15 days above average as far as temperatures and these would be accurate maps. I guess we will see once October hits!